Getting 40 people to do anything together is challenging.  Heck, getting even 5 people to agree on where to go to lunch can be challenging!  So I find it very impressive the level of coordination that emerges in games like WoW to tackle raid challenges.  I've finally gotten to the point of doing some Molten Core raids -- a high level dungeon in WoW that requires 40 people to full off some fairly elaborate tactics to beat some uber bosses.  Ok, it's not the toughest dungeon in the game... but it is pretty close.

The experience has a pacing and intensity that is quite different from most other multiplayer experiences.  It's a 40-player co-op game but in most cases the ideal strategy is already known from the legions of players that have come before and "solved" each of the encounters.  The trick is in executing those strategies with players who haven't done it before and who may not have the ideal gear, class balance, etc.  But really, the core challenge is communication.  The issues are human issues, not game mechanical ones.  Leadership and planning, not hitpoints and spell power.  That gives it a human intensity which is definitely an interesting flavor of multiplayer gaming.

I also find it fascinating that there are user mods designed for specific high level bosses in WoW.  It makes sense, of course, since organization is so key and computers are very good about things like warning about special attacks that occur on 30 second intervals and the like.  But these tools are so far outside the actual in-game structure of the game it almost feels like cheating to me.  Blizzard draws a clear line between what they say is valid and what isn't, and these mods (like "CTRaid", the most common high end raid-oriented UI mod) are clearly sanctioned. 

Admittedly, at the point where we are fighting the same bosses time and again to "farm" them for their loot, we're well outside the realm of a coherent story or in-game fiction.  But a part of me balks at the idea of having to go so wholly outside the game.  Social pressures make it a de facto requirement to have these mods to participate at the high end.  It's fantastic that Blizzard has such an open UI format that such things are possible... but it certainly is not a decision that comes without cost.  Just beyond the issue of being required to download this random third party software to play the game, it must result in a great deal of technical support and security issues for Blizzard.  Yet, now that they have upped the ante, it is hard to see how any top tier MMO will be able to ship without that capability.

Some "classic" open-ended PC games have really been eating all my time lately.  In addition to the aforementioned WoW raiding, I've been playing a lot of Magic Online as well as GTA: San Andreas.  Really, I could probably play either of those games for another year without getting sick of them, and when I get sucked back in my "pile" definitely grows.  Fortunately it's a bit of a lean time right now for new releases, but that certainly won't last...

I have to say overall 2005 was a pretty great year.  We moved into an awesome new house, our boys are growing up well, Age of Empires 3 was released and is selling like gangbusters, and my (still as yet un-announced) project is making fantastic progress.  So I'm quite optimistic that 2006 is going to go really well.

Since it's a kind of vogue thing to do, I thought I'd try my hand at a few random predictions for 2006 (games industry related, as you might imagine).  As anyone who knows me will attest my track record for this sort of thing is far from stellar but maybe if I keep them conservative enough I'll get a few hits.

1. Xbox 360 will have a stellar year and the PS3 will face a difficult launch.  Too vague?  Ok, I'll say that in North America, by the end of 2006, the X360 will have a total install base of 10 million units to only 3 million units of the PS3. 

Ok, I know it sounds like I'm just toeing the company line, but I see this happening from two directions.  From the 360 side... well, I had some serious reservations about the X360 while it was in development but I've just been wildly impressed with the final product.  Xbox Live as implemented on the 360 is the seed of a real paradigm shift.  Meanwhile, Sony has split it's attention between the PSP and the PS3, is having cashflow problems, rumors of serious hardware difficulties abound, and they've become complacent with the success of the PS2.  Now, you should never count out Sony but I think they are going to be in for a bit of a shock.

Of course, I'll still be camping out in line for one, I'm sure.  Most likely because my hunch is that the new "real" GTA game is going to be a PS3 launch title.

2. There will be a lot of continued bluster about anti-game legislation but nothing will come to pass at a Federal level and the few that get through at the state level will be overturned in court.

You can't legislate against violence and sex in games any more than you can on cable TV or in the movies.  The big risk here is that we have no competent and organized lobbying or representation group, so there exists a risk of some bad precendent getting on the books.  Still, neither the science nor the Constitution backs up the proponents of anti-gaming laws so I think they are going to amount to little more than political grandstanding.

3. The traditional retail model of game distribution will slowly begin to erode.  5% of total game revenues will no longer go to box copy sales.  Unfortunately this is difficult to objectively verify since our metrics for even tracking boxed sales are dicey at best.

The basics of this are already in place with things like Steam and subscription revenues for games like World of Warcraft.  Retail sales are never going to go away.  But the opportunity to cut into piracy and rental sales is too great, and the technology is finally coming of age.

4. No one will have GTA-level success with a GTA-style game except for, well, GTA. 

It's sad but true... of the scores of so-called GTA "clones" out there (released or in development) none of them even compete with GTA on a feature level, much less in content, style, or scope.  Even a fairly literal clone of GTA would be quite successful, IMO.  While I have high hopes for Saint's Row (and I do hope they prove me wrong) it seems that for the time being GTA's crown will remain intact.

5. No other MMO will unseat World of Warcraft as the clear market leader.  In fact, WoW will increase it's userbase to 9 million worldwide, even though the expansion will not ship until August or later.

Why it's taking Blizzard 2 years to come out with an expansion is not entirely clear to me, but what is clear to me is that WoW is still incredibly addictive and fun.  I see a lot of competitors out there on the market but none that seem to really understand just why Blizzard has had the success that they do.  Fortunately the market is large enough for smaller games to survive on subscription revenue (Eve and City of Heroes/Villains come to mind as fine games in their own right if not able to tackle WoW).  It's amazing to me how many people I talk to who are convinced that "any day now" people are going to "graduate" from WoW to a "real" MMO.  It's maddening.

There you have it.  5 predictions, admittedly none too bold.  I'll check back in 2007 to see how I did...

Games wise... Civ 4 and WoW are still eating the vast majority of my time.  Such good games and so replayable.  The new Matrix edition of Star Chamber is a lot of fun too though I find the games so intense I can't play more than an hour or two without being exhausted.

On the console... Dragon Quest 8 is still getting a lot of playtime, especially with an excited 4 year old cheering me on and shouting "critical hit" every time I get one.  DQ8 isn't exactly a short game either, so I'm splitting time with it RPG-wise with X-Men Legends 2 and Mario & Luigi on the DS... both excellent games in their own right.   Meanwhile after the kids go to sleep I'm working my way through Prince of Persia: Two Thrones (so so so much better than Warrior Within) and Condemned (a good if IMO deeply flawed, game).

There's no shortage of great stuff this holiday, jaded naysayers aside.  With games like Oblivion, Galciv 2, and HOMM 5 on the horizion I may not get much of a break to work through the backlog, either!